After 11 years of construction and planning, operations at the Dangote Refinery officially began on September 15, 2024, with the refinery set to produce 25 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily. The commencement of operations is set to have a significant impact on the real estate market in the Lekki-Epe corridor. Here are some potential effects:
Short-Term Effects
In the short term, increased traffic congestion is expected. The frequent movement of hundreds of trucks to and from the refinery will likely exacerbate the already busy Lekki-Epe Expressway, making commuting more challenging. This additional strain on the area’s infrastructure, which already suffers from drainage issues, potholes, and uneven road surfaces, may lower the immediate appeal of real estate in the area. Noise and air pollution may also become a concern. Despite these challenges, the influx of industrial activities could prompt more government and private investment in infrastructure, which could set the stage for future growth in property values.
Mid-Term Effects
In the medium term, the Lekki-Epe-Ibeju axis is likely to see a rise in demand for commercial properties due to the influx of workers and businesses attracted by the direct opportunities with the refinery and related auxiliary enterprises that support its operations. Although the refinery may provide accommodations for its staff, this will not eliminate the anticipated increase in demand for both residential and commercial real estate as people flock to the area seeking new opportunities.
Speculative land holdings, which have been waiting for the right moment, may be developed to meet the increasing demand. Additionally, the rising influx is likely to stimulate the development of hospitality and entertainment venues, such as hotels, boutique inns, and wellness resorts, which are currently in short supply, especially with heightened anticipation surrounding the future Lekki Airport project.
Long-Term Effects
Looking further ahead, the Lekki-Epe (Ibeju-Lekki) corridor is likely to evolve into a major mixed-use hub, encompassing residential, commercial, industrial, and hospitality developments. As activities ramp up within the Lekki Free Trade Zone, demand for warehouses, logistics hubs and office spaces is expected to rise. Key infrastructure projects such as the Coastal Road—linking Victoria Island to Ibeju-Lekki via the Lekki Peninsula—and the Regional Road, which will serve as a bypass to ease congestion on the Lekki-Epe Expressway, will significantly improve connectivity.
Additionally, the Lekki-Epe Link Bridge, connecting the Lekki Peninsula and Epe, is poised to further enhance accessibility, making the area more attractive to commercial real estate investors. Upcoming projects like the 4th Mainland Bridge and Lekki Airport will further boost the region’s appeal, positioning it as a prime destination for long-term investments and development.
Conclusion
Over the past five years, land prices in the Lekki-Epe corridor have shown significant growth, increasing by 200-250%. A notable example is a 500 sqm plot in the Okun-Ajah area of Ajah, which sold for ₦13M in 2019 and now commands a price of ₦40M. The continued development of infrastructure will be critical in unlocking the full potential of this region. With strategic disciplined and future-focused public planning and sustained investments, long-term property value appreciation is virtually assured.
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